Владимир Крохин » Публикация

Аннотация The paper describes major patterns of centennial/semi-centennial climatic tendencies and oscillations in the surface air temperature and precipitation for the Northeast Asia in the 20th century, as well as, in the sea surface temperature (SST) for the Northwest Pacific in the second half of the century. Linear trend of monthly mean precipitation and air/water temperature is estimated by two statistical methods. The first one is the least squares method with the Fisher’s test for a significance level. The second method is a nonparametric robust method based on the Theil's rank regression and the Kendall's test for a significance level applicable to the dataset with the abnormal distribution function typical for the precipitation time series. Differences of the trend in precipitation estimated by two methods are shown. Regional features of climate change and dominating oscillations associated with cooling or warming, positive or negative precipitation anomalies in different seasons and large-scale areas are found. High seasonality of both climatic trends and the low frequency variability in the studied area are revealed. It is shown that the semi-centennial summer cooling in a central continental area of Asia accompanies the semi-centennial negative SST anomaly in the offshore region of the western subarctic pacific gyre. At the same time, warming at Kamchatka Peninsula and marginal subtropic area of the Northeast Asia accompanies the positive SST trend in the Kuroshio and Aleutian current systems. Similar alternation and seasonality of positive and negative temperature anomalies are also typical for the El Niño signal in the Northwest Pacific SST.