Владимир Крохин » Публикация
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Опубликовано
2013-06-04
Опубликовано на SciPeople2014-06-07 03:31:10
ОрганизацияДальневосточный научно-исследовательский гидрометеорологический институт
ЖурналPacific Oceanography Journal
Development of integrated processing line of tropical cyclone hydrodynamic forecast
Krokhin V., Baranov G., Evdokimova L., Moiseev M., Phil A. Development of integrated processing line of tropical cyclone hydrodynamic forecast // Pacific Oceanography Journal.- 2013.- Volume 6.- No.1. – p. 28-43.
Аннотация
Basic requirements to the FERHRI automated forecasting system (AFS) for tropical cyclones are laid down. Hurricane model
configuration is described. Results of quasioperational verification of HWRF and AHW models are considered. It is obtained that
both approaches: movable (HWRF) and immovable (AHW) (nested grids) gives approximately similar errors in forecasting of
tropical cyclone location for the period of 72 hours.
Estimates of the forecasts of the fields of some meteorological elements in vicinity of tropical cyclones on the basis of МЕТ
software are presented. Analysis of regular errors of hydrodynamic models of WRF family made with involvement of results of
V.M. Losev’s modified regional model forecasts with artificial vapor flow, ensures the possibility of further adjustment of
convection blocks and boundary layer for working with tropical cyclone. It is obtained that errors in forecasting of location,
speed and direction of tropical cyclone movement using HWRF model are less. It proves that HWRF model is more stable in
comparison with AHW model.
On the basis of tests performed in 2011, a principal capability of AHW and HWRF models to produce the position/time
characteristics of a tropical cyclone at various stages of development at the level of official forecasts has been proved. The
authors suppose it would be reasonable to use WRF family models for the forecast of tropical cyclone movement and evolution
in the Russian Far East.